The COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on mass shootings in six major US cities.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has significant impacts on the US socioeconomic structure. Gun violence is a major public health issue and the effects on this area have not been well-elucidated. The objective of this study was to determine the impacts of the pandemic on mass shootings in six major United States cities with historically high rates of gun violence. METHODS: Mass shooting data were extracted from an open-source database, Gun Violence Archive. Mass shooting was defined as four or more people shot at a single event. Data from six cities with the highest incidence of mass shootings were analyzed in 2019 versus 2020 (Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and St. Louis). Geographic data were examined to assess changes in each city's mass shooting geographic distribution over time. Quantitative changes were assessed using the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), and qualitative data were assessed using ArcGIS. RESULTS: In 2020, the overall percentage of mass shootings increased by 46.7% though there was no change in the distribution of these events when assessed quantitatively (no change in average ADI) nor qualitatively (using ArcGIS). In the six cities analyzed, the total proportion of mass shooting events was unchanged during the pandemic (21.8% vs 20.6%, p = 0.64). Chicago, the US city with the highest incidence of mass shootings, did not experience a significant change in 2020 (n = 34/91, 37.3% vs. n = 53/126, 42.1%, p = 0.57). Baltimore had a significant decrease in mass shooting events (n = 18/91, 19.8% vs. 10/126, 7.9%, p = 0.01). The other four cities had no significant change in the number of mass shootings (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: This study is the first to use ArcGIS technology to describe the patterns of mass shooting in six major US cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of mass shootings in six US cities remained largely unchanged which suggests that changes in mass shootings is likely occurring in smaller cities. Future studies should focus on the changing patterns of homicides in at-risk communities and other possible social influences.

A new wave of mass shootings? Exploring the potential impact of COVID-19

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has brought much of U.S. society to a grinding halt, its impact on the occurrence of mass shootings is largely unknown. Using data from the Gun Violence Archive and an interrupted time-series design, we analyzed weekly counts of mass shootings in the U.S. from 2019 through 2021. Results show that total, private, and public mass shootings increased following the declaration of COVID-19 as a national emergency in March of 2020. We consider these findings in the context of their broader implications for prevention efforts as well as how they pave the way for future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

An Examination of US School Mass Shootings, 2017-2022: Findings and Implications.

Objectives: Gun violence in the USA is a pressing social and public health issue. As rates of gun violence continue to rise, deaths resulting from such violence rise as well. School shootings, in particular, are at their highest recorded levels. In this study, we examined rates of intentional firearm deaths, mass shootings, and school mass shootings in the USA using data from the past 5 years, 2017-2022, to assess trends and reappraise prior examination of this issue. Methods: Extant data regarding shooting deaths from 2017 through 2020 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, the web-based injury statistics query and reporting system (WISQARS), and, for school shootings in particular (2017-2022), from Everytown Research & Policy. Results: The number of intentional firearm deaths and the crude death rates increased from 2017 to 2020 in all age categories; crude death rates rose from 4.47 in 2017 to 5.88 in 2020. School shootings made a sharp decline in 2020-understandably so, given the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent government or locally mandated school shutdowns-but rose again sharply in 2021. Conclusions: Recent data suggest continued upward trends in school shootings, school mass shootings, and related deaths over the past 5 years. Notably, gun violence disproportionately affects boys, especially Black boys, with much higher gun deaths per capita for this group than for any other group of youth. Implications for policy and practice are provided.

Exploring the Contagion Effect of Social Media on Mass Shootings

Social media plays a prominent role in the spread of mass shootings. It brought about a significant contagious effect on future similar incidents. Therefore, we explore Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast the change in the public’s attitudes about mass shootings on social media over time. These ML models include Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), and the optimized Deep Neural Networks based on an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (IPSO-DNN). We then propose a self-excited contagion model to predict the number of mass shootings by focusing on the spread of public attitudes on Twitter. Moreover, we also improve the proposed contagion model with the consideration of social distancing and the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases, to predict and analyze mass shootings under the COVID-19 pandemic. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed contagion models perform very well in predicting future mass shootings in the United States.

A Closer Look at the Rising Epidemic of Mass Shootings in the United States and Its Association With Gun Legislation, Laws, and Sales.

INTRODUCTION: Mass shootings pose a considerable threat to public safety and significantly cost the United States in terms of lives and expenses. The following are the specific aims of this study: (1) to assess US mass shootings, firearm-related sales, laws, and regional differences from 2015 to 2021 and (2) to investigate changes in mass shootings and firearm sales before and during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted of mass shootings, gun sales, and laws regarding the minimum age required to purchase a firearm within the United States from 2015 to 2021. The 10 states/regions with the greatest mean mass shootings/capita from 2015 to 2021 were selected for further analysis. RESULTS: Mass shootings correlated significantly with firearm sales from 2015 to 2021 nationwide (P < 0.02 for all). The growth in mass shootings, the number killed/injured, and gun sales were greater in 2020 and 2021 compared to the years prior. The 10 states with the highest mean mass shooting/capita over the study period were Alabama, Arkansas, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, and Tennessee. No significant correlation was found between the number of mass shootings/capita and the minimum age to purchase a firearm. CONCLUSIONS: Firearm sales correlated significantly with mass shootings from 2015 to 2021. Mass shootings and gun sales increased at greater rates during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic compared to the years before the pandemic. Mass shootings exhibited inconsistent trends with state gun laws regarding the minimum age to purchase a firearm. Future studies may consider investigating the methods by which firearms used in mass shootings are obtained to further identify targets for prevention.

Structural competency and the future of firearm research.

In this critical literature review we develop a five-part agenda for pandemic-era research into mass shootings and multiple-victim homicides that promotes understanding the psychologies of individual shooters within larger structures and systems. We show how the momentous events set in motion by the COVID-19 virus, and the structural drivers of inequity and racism that its spread exposed, challenge mental health research on gun trauma to better account for broader terrains of race and place, as well as the tensions, politics, and assumptions that surround guns in the U.S. more broadly. Doing so will broaden mental-health interventions into epidemics of U.S. gun trauma, and challenge mental health research better recognize structural biases inherent in its own purview. We frame the agenda through the rubric of structural competency, an emerging framework that systematically trains health care professionals and others to recognize ways that institutions, neighborhood conditions, market forces, public policies, and health care delivery systems shape symptoms and diseases. Developing a structural framework around research into U.S. gun violence addresses the risks, traumas, meanings, and consequences that firearms represent for all communities-and highlights the importance of a renewed focus on mental health and safety for communities of color. Recognizing how gun violence reflects and encapsulates structures helps mental health experts address common sense gun policies within broader contexts-by fighting against structural racism or racially inflected gun policies for instance, or against economic policies that undermine access to mental health care more broadly.